Market Report

August 4, 2008
by
Duncan D. Lee

Dear Friends:

We have just returned from a successful ANA in Baltimore. With the Pre-ANA Show in nearby Towson and several evenings of auctions prior to the actual start of the ANA, the number of days required to complete the ANA experience now stretches to more than 10 days. However, as we approached the end of the show it seemed like there were just not enough time to do all the things that we needed to do for customers and make time to meet new friends at the show. The pre-show was somewhat slow as most dealers used the show to stored their material while attending the auctions or enjoying the sunny, but humid, Inner Harbor site.

Baltimore's pre-ANA auctions were overall very impressive. Although Superior's auction brought in only $1.2 million, this first auction was marred by the stolen consignments which occurred while Superior was moving from their Beverly Hills location to their new home in Woodland Hills. Bowers and Merena's sale which followed Superior's auction sold more than $4.7 million. Stack's had the biggest sale of the three, with an impressive offering of key dates, rare Territorials and rarely seen Patterns. An example of just one such offering was Lot No. 4228, an 1879 $4 Coiled Hair Stella struck in aluminum, Judd-1640, graded by NGC as PR-67 Cameo, which sold for $373,750. To put things in perspective, approximately two years ago the same or similar coin sold for $92,000!

The ANA auction conducted by Heritage Auction Galleries was another incredible event, numismatically speaking. At last count, the total sold was quickly approaching $40 million. Although I did notice a little weakness in the prices of high-grade early proof Seated Dollars, almost every other sector in the rare coin market was exceptionally strong. One of my favorite coins illustrates the incredible underlining strength. An 1804 14 stars Dime, graded NGC AU-58, brought $632,500. Prior to the sale, I had confidently predicted to a fellow dealer friend that this dime would bring more than $300,000! Boy was I wrong. No one except for the two bidders who fought over the coin had any idea that this highest graded specimen would bring such a huge hammer price. For those of you who don't follow prices, this same coin sold in January, 2007 for the sum of $161,000! Another 1804 14 stars Dime, also graded NGC AU-58, brought $184,000 exactly 12 months ago! Although I knew there was strong interest in this coin, I had no idea that it would hammer for anywhere near the price it reached.

In other "mundane" news, better date Early, Bust and Seated coins were extremely difficult to find and, when located, the prices seem to move higher as each day passed at the show. Unless one jumped at the opportunity to purchase at whatever price being offered, the nicer material seemed to move from one dealer to the other at even higher prices. I noticed that key date coins in the Mercury Dimes, Walking Liberty Halves and Morgan Dollars were highly sought after even after the recent significant increases in bids. Eye appealing, nice type coins were in strong demand and gold coins were strong despite the drop in gold bullion prices. Although not readily apparent, it appears that momentum is building for the classic Silver Commemorates. As many of you know, I have been recommending the slow accumulation of high-grade attractive key dates in the Silver Commemorates series in anticipation of a strong increase in this long neglected sector.

One final thought. As I was reviewing past price history, I noticed that when silver prices were just pushing past four dollars an ounce, collectible pre-1921 Morgan dollars were selling for $10 each. Today with silver at just under $18 an ounce, pre-1921 Morgan dollars can be purchased for approximately $18 in the collectible grades of F-VF. I believe this presents a premium play with very little downside. Putting away some of these collectible dollars presents both a pure silver play as well as offering a numismatic premium increase potential.

Please call me if you have any questions or comments. Paul and I are looking forward to serving your numismatic needs.

Best regards,
Duncan Lee


The material on this website has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any visitor. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any coins, collectibles or other tangible investment or related financial instruments. References made to third parties are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Visitors should not regard it as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any opinions expressed in this site are subject to change without notice and Duncan Lee or Duncan Lee Rare Coins, Inc., is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. Duncan Lee and/or Duncan Lee Rare Coins, Inc., and its respective officers and associates or clients may have an interest in the coins, collectibles or other tangible investment or related financial instruments in this material. In addition, Duncan Lee and/or Duncan Lee Rare Coins, Inc., may make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent. Duncan Lee and/or Duncan Lee Rare Coins, Inc., accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Our comments are an expression of opinion. While we believe our statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of our own credible sources. We recommend that you consult with a licensed, qualified investment advisor before making any investment decisions.